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22 June, 11:53

In the bottom of the 9th inning in a tie game, the leadoff batter for the home team hits a double. According to researcher Tom Tango, teams in this situation have a win probability of 0.807. Because the home team only needs one run to win the game, some managers will choose to have the next player attempt a sacrifice bunt, which allows the runner on second base to reach third base while the hitter is thrown out. If the sacrifice bunt is successful, then the home team has a runner on third base with 1 out and a win probability of 0.830. However, if the sacrifice is unsuccessful and the runner is thrown out at third, there is a runner at first with one out (win probability of 0.637). What is the minimum probability of a successful bunt that would warrant using the bunt?

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  1. 22 June, 15:28
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    0.881

    Explanation:

    The minimum probability of a successful bunt that would warrant using the bunt is that probability that, at least, does not decrease the probability of winning after the batter hit the double: 0.807.

    Call p the probability of a succesful sacrifice bunt.

    Using a probability tree diagram:

    successful sacrifice bunt: p

    - win: 0.830

    - loose: 0.17

    unsucessful sacfifice bunt: (1 - p)

    - win: 0.637

    - loose: 0.363

    From that, the probability of winning is 0.830 (p) + 0.637 (1 - p)

    You want to determine p, such that 0.830 (p) + 0.637 (1 - p) ≥ 0.807

    Solve for p:

    0.830p + 0.637 - 0.637p ≥ 0.807 0.193p ≥ 0.170 p ≥ 0.8808

    Rounding to thousandths, the minimum probability of a succesful bunt that would warrant using the bunt is 0.881.
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