An outbreak occurs where the first case is detected on October 15th, the last case is detected on October 27th, and the peak is on October 22nd. The average incubation period for the disease is 7 days with a range from 1-15 days. What is the probable period of exposure?

12-14 october

Explanation:

The probable period of exposure is calculated as follows:

Know the range of the incubation period Start counting back from the days of the first case by subtracting the first number of incubation period range Count back the days from the last case by subtracting the last number of incubation period range. This will give a range which will be the period of exposure.

From the question,

Incubation period range 1-15 Date of first case = october 15 Therefore, first date of exposure = 15 - 1 = 14 Date of last case = 22 Therefore, last date of exposure = 27 - 15 = 12 Thus, the range is 12-14 october which is the probable period of exposure.