Which scenario illustrates the gambler's fallacy: assuming that what typically happens in the long run will not happen in the short run?

a. Every time Jonas plays poker, he wins. He knows how lucky he is, so he buys a lottery ticket every week.

b. The probability of winning the lottery is one in a million, so to improve his chances, Jonas buys 100 lottery tickets.

c. Jonas has been buying lottery tickets for years now and has never won, so he is bound to win some time soon.

d. Jonas won $5,000 the first time he bought a lottery ticket, so he has been buying lottery tickets for years now.

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Ignacio Mcgrath

4 August, 07:23

Which scenario illustrates the gambler's fallacy: assuming that what typically happens in the long run will not happen in the short run?

a. Every time Jonas plays poker, he wins. He knows how lucky he is, so he buys a lottery ticket every week.

b. The probability of winning the lottery is one in a million, so to improve his chances, Jonas buys 100 lottery tickets.

c. Jonas has been buying lottery tickets for years now and has never won, so he is bound to win some time soon.

d. Jonas won $5,000 the first time he bought a lottery ticket, so he has been buying lottery tickets for years now.

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Answers (1)

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Dane Aguilar · Answer 1

The example of gamblers fallacy is the following: c. Jonas has been buying lottery tickets for years now and has never won, so he is bound to win some time soon.

the reason is that Jonas thinks about his chances to win in terms of not having won so far, which is a thought fallacy (and gambler's fallacy)