According to an article on the Guardian website, a British woman in 2003 has probability 0.27 of living at least 100 years. suppose that you randomly select 200 women who were born in 2003. will exactly 54 of them live at least 100 years?

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Mathematics

Delilah Hamilton

Today, 11:59

According to an article on the Guardian website, a British woman in 2003 has probability 0.27 of living at least 100 years. suppose that you randomly select 200 women who were born in 2003. will exactly 54 of them live at least 100 years?

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Angeline Cervantes · Answer 1

No. 0.27 is the mean calculated from past data. It can’t be used to make an exact prediction. Each woman has a probability of 0.27 of living beyond 100 years. For example, if 100 women are randomly selected the probability of exactly 27 of them living 100 or more years is ¹⁰⁰C₂₇0.27²⁷0.73⁷³=0.09, or about 9%.