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30 August, 11:18

In a state lottery game you select six numbers from 1 to 44. the state selects six numbers at random from 1 to 44 without replacement. you must match four out of the state's six to win third prize. the order of the numbers is irrelevant. find the probability of winning third prize.

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  1. 30 August, 13:48
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    We need to correctly choose exactly 4 out of the 6 drawn numbers.

    Apply hypergeometric distribution:

    a=number of correctly chosen numbers = 4

    A=number of correct (drawn) numbers = 6

    b=number of incorrectly chosen numbers = 2

    B=number of undrawn numbers = 44-6 = 38

    Then by the hypergeometric distribution

    P (a, b, A, B)

    =C (A, a) C (B, b) / C (A+B, a+b) [C (n, r) = combination of r objects taken out of n]

    =C (6,4) C (38,2) / C (44,6)

    =15*703/7059052

    = 10545/7059052

    = 0.001494 (to the nearest millionth)

    Answer: probability of winning third prize is 10545/7059052=0.001494
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