At the beginning of the school year, experts were asked to predict a variety of world events (for example, the province of Quebec separating from Canada). The experts reported being 80 percent confident in their predictions. However, their predictions were correct only 40 percent of the time. This result reflects a flaw in thinking called?

Question

Mathematics

Bria Cantu

21 September, 22:02

At the beginning of the school year, experts were asked to predict a variety of world events (for example, the province of Quebec separating from Canada). The experts reported being 80 percent confident in their predictions. However, their predictions were correct only 40 percent of the time. This result reflects a flaw in thinking called?

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Answers (1)

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Ian Ward · Answer 1

This result reflects a flaw in thinking called overconfidence.

Explanation:

Overconfidence is the quality or nature of being excessive confident in the decisions and prediction. It causes the miscalibration of the probabilities. Overconfidence and hindsight are two examples that shows the flaws in thinking through common sense. As the experts were 80% sure about their own decision but ended up with only 40% of their correct prediction. Overconfidence is also one of the error in the thinking.