When Haley's Comet hovered over Jerusalem in 66 CE, the historian Josephus prophesied it meant the destruction of the city. Jerusalem fell four years later during a failed uprising against Roman occupiers, thus confirming the power of the comet. What is the causal fallacy?

Question

Social Studies

Miriam Greene

31 December, 11:34

When Haley's Comet hovered over Jerusalem in 66 CE, the historian Josephus prophesied it meant the destruction of the city. Jerusalem fell four years later during a failed uprising against Roman occupiers, thus confirming the power of the comet. What is the causal fallacy?

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Answers (1)

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Gary Bird · Answer 1

The correct answer is:

Post hoc fallacy.

Explanation:

The post hoc fallacy is an argument based in the fact that an event happens just after the other, in this case it does not mean that just because the historian predicted the fact the result is a consequence of what he said, or that what he said was true. In this order, the fallacy uses the temporal consequence as an argument. Nevertheless, it is important to consider that temporal sequence is naturally part of the causality process.